The big tone has been set! 2023 photovoltaic "great leap forward", or super imagination!
On December 16, the National Energy Administration released the statistics of the national power industry from January to November, showing that the newly installed solar power in November was 7.47GW, with the cumulative installed capacity reaching 65.71GW, exceeding the cumulative installed capacity of 54.88GW in 2021, and hitting a 20-year record high.
According to industry forecasts, the annual new installed capacity is expected to break through 80GW in 2022, reaching 85GW.
With the countdown to 2022 and the arrival of 2023, China's photovoltaic market is expected to move from victory to victory and create new brilliance, because the policy and market tone have been set.
First, let's look at the policy upside. At the just-concluded Central Economic Work Conference, China will strengthen domestic exploration and development of major energy and mineral resources, increase storage and production, accelerate the planning and construction of a new energy system, and improve the country's ability to secure strategic material reserves.
At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "14th Five-Year Plan" to expand domestic demand strategy implementation plan mentioned that continue to improve the utilization level of clean energy, the construction of multi-energy complementary clean energy base, with desert, Gobi, desert areas as the focus to speed up the construction of large-scale wind power, photovoltaic bases.
The CPC Central Committee and The State Council issued the Outline of the Strategic Plan for Expanding Domestic Demand (2022-2035), reaffirming that China will significantly improve the utilization of clean energy, build clean energy bases with multiple and complementary energy resources, and speed up the construction of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic bases, especially in deserts, Gobi and desert areas.
The two national action plans, in lockstep, cite the construction of large-scale photovoltaic bases as a policy tool to expand domestic demand.
On the premise of supporting the photovoltaic policy to maintain continuity, the photovoltaic market will be a series of positive in the future, that is, the upstream silicon, silicon links have appeared in the price decline, silicon prices from 310,000 / ton within the year to 270,000 / ton line, TCL Central twice within the year reduced the price of silicon, Longji green can be reduced once, photovoltaic module price fell below 1.9 yuan/watt.
At present, we adhere to the development path of both concentration and distribution, photovoltaic market installed space is very wide. The National Development and Reform Commission has issued two batches of wind power and photovoltaic bases with a total of 547GW, and the third batch will be issued soon. In addition, 676 counties across the country are promoting county-wide photovoltaic pilot projects, so there is huge room for incremental improvements in both centralized and distributed PV. With prices falling across the industry chain, the two major markets will further unleash greater growth momentum.
In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration issued a favorable policy on the transformation of the rural grid, the grid will also further exert the infinite power of the favorable policy in the case of the price decline of the industrial chain.
On October 8, the General Office of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Comprehensive Department of the National Energy Administration issued a notice soliciting public opinions on the Implementation of the Rural Power Grid Consolidation and Upgrading Project (draft).
Grid enterprises and power supply enterprises at all levels should actively provide grid connection services for rural distributed renewable energy power generation, simplify grid connection procedures by law, optimize service processes, promote online service applications, and ensure that rural distributed renewable energy power generation "should meet all requirements" and the consumption rate remains at a reasonable level, according to the circular.
It can be expected that with the price reduction of photovoltaic modules, the installed demand of central enterprises, private enterprises and individual investors will be fully released, especially in some provinces and cities that also provide local subsidies. The price reduction of modules and subsidies is to earn more than others. In addition, even a fraction of the price of a component is a huge cost saving for a large power plant. So, if the installed PV capacity reaches 80-85GW in 2022, it is highly likely to exceed this figure and reach more than 100GW in 2023.
